Another survey shows a seemingly dominant sentiment that bitcoin (BTC) still has more room to fall and test new lows in the near term before skyrocketing again. In either case, the latest prediction marks the third time this year that a panel of analysts gathered by the comparison website Finder.com has had to adjust its predictions down.
Judging from an average of the responses, bitcoin could fall to USD 13,676 this year, before it ends the year higher at close to USD 25,500 – almost 30% higher than the coin’s current price at the time of writing (08: 30 UTC) of USD 19,770.
Finder.com’s panel was made up of various crypto industry players, including analysts, founders, CEOs, and academics.
“It’s reasonable to expect to see more big projects fail in the next couple of months. Retail sentiment is at historic lows due to global economic uncertainty and inflation. Highly leveraged miners, who just had to digest the China exodus, will capitulate and increase the downside pressure even more. We will see even lower Bitcoin prices,” commented Martin Fröhler, a mathematician and CEO of crypto trading platform Morpher.
Other panelists also agreed with Fröhler, with for instance Arcane Research analyst Vetle Lunde saying bitcoin has been “crushed” by negative impulses, and that a drop to USD 13,000 is in the cards for this year.
“A myriad of negative forces has crushed the strength of bitcoin…. further tightening and unwinding of bad crypto debts will create sobering times onwards, and investors should buckle up for more difficulty,” Lunde said.
Others in the panel were much more critical, with John Hawkins, senior lecturer at the University of Canberra, calling bitcoin “nothing but a speculative bubble.”
Compared to a previous survey from April, expectations towards the bitcoin price among the panelists have fallen dramatically.
In April, panelists believed bitcoin would reach a peak of USD 81,680 this year, before ending the year at USD 65,185. The prediction for the year’s high was significantly higher than bitcoin’s market price at the time, which was just over USD 40,500. Still, the prediction was 15% lower than an even more bullish end-of-year prediction from January of USD 76,360.
Asked what the driver behind the current crypto bear market is, 70% of the panelists cited global interest rate hikes as the main reason. That was followed by the collapse of the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem, monetary tightening by central banks, and rising inflation, as the next most important reasons.
Looking further into the future, Finder.com’s panelists said that, on average, bitcoin is still likely to reach as high as USD 106,757 by the end of 2025, and USD 314,314 by the end of 2030.
BTC predictions for year-end 2022, 2025 and 2030:
“We must think about the long-term implications of Bitcoin and proof-of-work cryptocurrencies. Once mined, this will be the next main store of value as gold once was,” argued Niraali Patel, investor relations and communications manager for crypto hedge fund CryptAM.
“For this reason, I believe this is the time to buy. Once the halving happens, BTC will be worth at least USD 100,000,” she added.
Meanwhile, in their latest report, analysts at crypto exchange Coinbase said that the bottom for digital assets may not be discovered until we see equity earnings forecasts in traditional markets finally revised lower, as the threat of a global economic recession looms.
“On the upside, if earnings forecasts highlight some form of price stabilization, then what we’re currently seeing could be a floor for crypto prices,” they said, adding that on-chain data suggests many speculative crypto holders have now been removed.
“For example, the bulk of bitcoin supply is now being held by longer-term holders, which was not the case during the previous 2018 crypto winter. We think these holders are more likely to have higher resolve about selling their holdings into weakness, which we see as a precondition for seeing an eventual recovery, perhaps in 4Q22,” per the analysts.